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grain stocks buffer against 2008 crisis replay
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global food prices are on the ascent again with the fao food price index – a food basket composed of cereals, oilseeds, dairy, meat and sugar – registering four straight monthly rises.
however market conditions are different from those that triggered the food price crisis that started two years ago, fao said in its december food outlook report published today.
the index averaged 168 points in november, the highest since september 2008. that was still 21 percent below its peak in june 2008. prior to the price spike of 2007/08, the index never exceeded 120 points and, for most of the time, was below 100points.
“at the onset of the price surge in 2007, fao identified a number of possible causes contributing to the price rise: low levels of world cereal stocks; crop failures in major exporting countries; rapidly growing demand for agricultural commodities for biofuels and rising oil prices,” the fao report said.
“as the price strengthening accelerated, several other factors emerged to reinforce the upheaval; most importantly, government export restrictions, a weakening united states dollar and a growing appetite by speculators and index funds for wider commodity portfolio investments on the back of enormous global excess liquidity. what made the 2007/08 price spike exceptional was the concurrence of so many factors culminating in an unprecedented price rally and the fuelling of volatility.”
cereal stocks healthy
today, world cereal stocks are at more comfortable levels, although some markets are facing tight conditions. in general supplies held by exporters are more adequate to respond to rising demand than they were during the price surge period. for example, the wheat stocks-to-use ratio in major exporting countries has risen from 12 percent to 20 percent this season. biofuels are still a leading driver but the sector has slowed in terms of year-on-year growth.
macro-economic factors, such as exchange rates, volatile oil prices and low interest rates are also causing investors to put their cash in commodity markets. “although supply and demand fundamentals will continue to shape commodity markets, the now entrenched susceptibility of the global food system to external non-food economy events requires continuous vigilance,” fao said.
production rising
“a healthy stock situation and good production prospects reduce the risk of a major price surge over the next six months, but fao will be keeping a very close eye on developments,” said hafez ghanem, fao assistant director-general for social and economic development.
although the preliminary outlook for cereals points to a decline in world output compared to 2008, mostly on account of lower price expectations which depressed plantings, production in 2009 is still expected to be about four percent higher than in 2007.
global cassava production is expected to reach new highs in 2009, largely due to initiatives to sustain food security and demand from the ethanol sector where cassava has emerged as a key feedstock. however prices of internationally traded cassava are still less than they were two years ago but should remain firm in 2010.
in the oil seeds market, a weakening in prices for meals and cakes is possible later in the season because of expected large south america crop but the market is expected to be tighter in oils and fats. world sugar prices are likely to remain firm but at lower levels than the current highs.
meat down, dairy and fish up
according to the fao meat price index, world meat prices were an average 8 percent lower in the first ten months of 2009 than the same period last year. lower global imports are expected to depress world trade in all various meat categories in 2009 but a modest recovery is expected in 2010.
dairy prices are on the rise again, gaining by 80 percent since reaching a low in february 2009, with traded milk powders the fastest rising product. future prices will depend on whether the european union offloads its large stocks of butter and skimmed milk onto the international market.
2009 was a challenging year for fish and fishery products because of the global downturn that hit demand. there have been moderate price increases for several months now.
Source :fao.org
Date :
9
December
2009
Category :
food industries Economic
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policy guide for countries hit hard by high food prices 26-01-2011 fao updates guide for actions at country level to address high food prices a high price to pay: the poorest of those most affected by high food prices spend over 75 percent of their income on food.26 january 2011, rome - fao has called upon countries to carefully examine the implications of high food prices and not to take any policy actions that might appear useful in the short term but could have harmful, longer-term effects or even aggravate the situation.
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west african farmers have succeeded in cutting the use of toxic pesticides, increasing yields and incomes and diversifying farming systems as a result of an international project promoting sustainable farming practices.around 100 000 farmers in benin, burkina faso, mali and senegal are participating in a community-driven training programme (west african regional integrated production and pest management (ippm) programme) executed by fao.
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fewer pesticides and higher yields and incomes 20-12-2010 integrated production and pest management programme in west africa makes important progress farmers working on a training plot in senegal. 20 december 2010, rome - west african farmers have succeeded in cutting the use of toxic pesticides, increasing yields and incomes and diversifying farming systems as a result of an international project promoting sustainable farming practices.
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about five million people living in the democratic people\'s republic of korea (dprk) will continue to face food shortages despite a relatively good harvest and a slight increase in food supply, a joint report by fao and wfp said today. a joint fao/wfp crop and food security assessment mission that visited dprk in september found that the country faces a cereal import requirement for the 2010/11 marketing year (nov/oct) of an estimated 867 000 tonnes.
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food production in haiti is slowly recovering but still remains significantly below the levels that existed prior to the january 2010 earthquake, according to the report of an fao-wfp joint assessment mission released today. haiti\'s 2010 spring harvest, compared to 2009, saw bean production drop by 17 percent and declines in maize, sorghum and plaintain of eight, four and five percent respectively, it found.
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growing scrutiny of food suppliers means an increasing focus on food safety issues. in this special edition article on risk, we look at how producers can communicate potential risks to consumers while protecting their brand reputation, in the event of contamination or recall issues. shouting (food safety issues) from the rooftops is important, but remember that consumers will notice inaccurate or mixed messages tony hines, head of food security and crisis management manager, leatherhead food research, told foodmanufacture.
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new fao book celebrating traditional food production in the southern caucasus because of its productivity, the caucasian bee is used all over the world.1 december 2010, rome - as part of its contribution to the international year of biodiversity, fao has published a book celebrating the richness of biodiversity for food and agriculture in the southern caucasus, birthplace of many common foods found on plates all over the world.
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farmers around the world are adopting new ways of producing food that both help cope with climate change and reduce farming\'s greenhouse gas emissions, according to a new fao website on \'climate-smart\' agriculture published today. burkina faso\'s yatenga province is being reclaimed through the use of an improved version of traditional \"planting pits\" known as zaï - now lands which were once barely productive are achieving yields five times greater than before.
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Coca.Cola
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PEPSI
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Mcdonald
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Nestle
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Mars
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Baskin & Robins
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Nutrika
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Mumika
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Chika
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global 